xG Lab
Football analytics with nothing hidden.
Win-probability replays, expected goals (xG) and match predictions for the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, the Champions League and more — from a model we explain in full.
Win-probability replays
Relive any finished match minute by minute, with xG timelines and shot maps.
Open-logic predictions
Pre-match probabilities for every fixture, graded in public against the results.
xG for players and teams
Expected goals, per-90 percentiles, power rankings and season projections.
The stories behind the numbers
All insights →Match analysis
Burnley 2–0 Leeds: why xG and win probability tell different stories
Burnley won despite recording less xG. Follow the model from a 25.3% pre-match chance to 58.3% after the opener, and learn what each metric measures.
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Match analysis
Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford: what changed at minute 79?
Aston Villa's win probability moved from 83.9% to 13.4%. Compare the match sequence with 1.82–1.24 xG.
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Season analysis
Premier League 2025/26: who scored more or less than their xG?
Crystal Palace finished 17.27 goals below their xG; Aston Villa finished 6.51 above. A full 20-team comparison and what the gaps can tell us.
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