Predictions

What the rolling-strength model forecast before each kickoff — win/draw/loss probability and expected score — graded against what actually happened. Out-of-sample (the model never saw the result). What do these mean?

This matchday

The model's forecast for the upcoming fixtures — make your own picks before kickoff and see how you stack up.

Upcoming — Matchday 6

model forecast · 1 of 316 fixtures

the rolling-strength model's pre-match call for games not yet played — win/draw/loss probabilities. Analysis only.

Wed 21 Oct

Levante UDAthletic Club

Predict the matchday

Lock a 1X2 call before kickoff, then see if you beat the model when the results come in. Free — just sign in.

Levante UDvAthletic Club

Model probabilities are this site's own forecast. Picks lock at kickoff and are graded from the final result — no stakes, just bragging rights.

Season track record

Every call the model made this season, graded against the result — and, more importantly, whether its probabilities held up.

Track record

every pre-match call is locked before kickoff, then scored against the result — an honest, self-updating record of the model's upcoming forecasts (not recomputed after the fact).

Scored

24/46

Accuracy

52%

Avg log-loss

0.974

Sevilla v Barcelona1–3called 64%

Celta Vigo v Real Racing Club de Santander5–0called 41%

Athletic Club v Deportivo Alavés0–0called 27%

Osasuna v Real Madrid1–1called 20%

Espanyol v Elche1–3called 30%

Málaga v Villarreal1–3called 35%

Real Betis v Getafe1–0called 58%

Barcelona v Real Racing Club de Santander7–2called 81%

345 more locked and awaiting results.

Outcomes called

31/65

Accuracy

48%

consensus ~53% · always-home ~46%

Avg log-loss

1.036

lower is better

Avg Brier

0.619

lower is better

Calibration

do the model's probabilities hold up? Each dot is a probability band — its height is how often those calls actually happened. On the dashed line = perfectly calibrated.

0.032 calibration error (0 = perfect)

Accuracy is the wrong lens for a three-way outcome: draws are rarely any side's single most-likely result, so ~25% of games are "wrong" by design. What matters is whether a stated 60% really happens ~60% of the time — that's calibration, and it's the number that actually matters.

Biggest upsets

rarest results the model gave little chance

Villarreal 1–2 Real Betis

12% chance

Deportivo Alavés 0–1 Valencia

14% chance

Osasuna 0–2 Espanyol

16% chance

Confident & correct

bold calls that landed

Barcelona 7–2 Racing de Santander

called at 80%

Barcelona 5–2 Rayo Vallecano

called at 77%

Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo Vallecano

called at 76%

Biggest misses

high-confidence calls that flopped

Villarreal 1–2 Real Betis

backed at 70%

Deportivo Alavés 0–1 Valencia

backed at 65%

Espanyol 1–3 Elche

backed at 62%

Matchday

Matchday 7

OsasunaRayo Vallecano

47%D 25%28%

1–1

exp 2–1

Athletic ClubDeportivo Alavés

41%D 28%31%

0–0

exp 1–1

Celta VigoRacing de Santander

Predictions

This matchday

The model's forecast for the upcoming fixtures — make your own picks before kickoff and see how you stack up.

Upcoming — Matchday 6

model forecast · 1 of 316 fixtures

the rolling-strength model's pre-match call for games not yet played — win/draw/loss probabilities. Analysis only.

Wed 21 Oct

Levante UDAthletic Club

Predict the matchday

Lock a 1X2 call before kickoff, then see if you beat the model when the results come in. Free — just sign in.

Levante UDvAthletic Club

Model probabilities are this site's own forecast. Picks lock at kickoff and are graded from the final result — no stakes, just bragging rights.

Season track record

Every call the model made this season, graded against the result — and, more importantly, whether its probabilities held up.

Track record

every pre-match call is locked before kickoff, then scored against the result — an honest, self-updating record of the model's upcoming forecasts (not recomputed after the fact).

Scored

24/46

Accuracy

52%

Avg log-loss

0.974

Sevilla v Barcelona1–3called 64%

Celta Vigo v Real Racing Club de Santander5–0called 41%

Athletic Club v Deportivo Alavés0–0called 27%

Osasuna v Real Madrid1–1called 20%

Espanyol v Elche1–3called 30%

Málaga v Villarreal1–3called 35%

Real Betis v Getafe1–0called 58%

Barcelona v Real Racing Club de Santander7–2called 81%

345 more locked and awaiting results.

Outcomes called

31/65

Accuracy

48%

consensus ~53% · always-home ~46%

Avg log-loss

1.036

lower is better

Avg Brier

0.619

lower is better

Calibration

do the model's probabilities hold up? Each dot is a probability band — its height is how often those calls actually happened. On the dashed line = perfectly calibrated.

0.032 calibration error (0 = perfect)

Biggest upsets

rarest results the model gave little chance

Villarreal 1–2 Real Betis

12% chance

Deportivo Alavés 0–1 Valencia

14% chance

Osasuna 0–2 Espanyol

16% chance

Confident & correct

bold calls that landed

Barcelona 7–2 Racing de Santander