xG Lab insights
The stories behind the numbers.
Original analysis of expected goals, results and win probability. Every article explains the method, identifies the data used and links to the matches or teams you can explore yourself.
Match analysis
Burnley 2–0 Leeds: why xG and win probability tell different stories
Burnley won despite recording less xG. Follow the model from a 25.3% pre-match chance to 58.3% after the opener, and learn what each metric measures.
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Match analysis
Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford: what changed at minute 79?
Aston Villa's win probability moved from 83.9% to 13.4%. Compare the match sequence with 1.82–1.24 xG.
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Season analysis
Premier League 2025/26: who scored more or less than their xG?
Crystal Palace finished 17.27 goals below their xG; Aston Villa finished 6.51 above. A full 20-team comparison and what the gaps can tell us.
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