Season analysis
Premier League 2025/26: who scored more or less than their xG?
Crystal Palace finished 17.27 goals below their xG; Aston Villa finished 6.51 above. A full 20-team comparison and what the gaps can tell us.
By xG Lab ·
The largest gap belongs to Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace scored 41 league goals from 58.27 expected goals in our 2025/26 dataset: a shortfall of 17.27 goals, the largest in the division. At the other end, Aston Villa scored 56 from 49.49 xG, a surplus of 6.51. These are two useful starting points for reviewing a season.
The comparison asks a specific question: how did a team’s actual scoring compare with the estimated quality of its shots? It does not measure everything that made the team good, and it cannot tell us on its own what will happen next season.
All 20 Premier League teams, ranked by goals minus xG
Positive: more goals than xG. Negative: fewer. Every team played 38 matches.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 56 | 49.49 | +6.51 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 48 | 41.61 | +6.39 |
| Manchester City | 77 | 71.48 | +5.52 |
| Burnley | 38 | 33.00 | +5.00 |
| Arsenal | 71 | 66.53 | +4.47 |
| Manchester United | 69 | 65.84 | +3.16 |
| Liverpool | 63 | 60.52 | +2.48 |
| Nottingham Forest | 48 | 45.70 | +2.30 |
| Sunderland | 42 | 40.55 | +1.45 |
| Everton | 47 | 46.71 | +0.29 |
| West Ham United | 46 | 46.96 | -0.96 |
| Fulham | 47 | 48.47 | -1.47 |
| Bournemouth | 58 | 62.28 | -4.28 |
| Newcastle United | 53 | 58.62 | -5.62 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 52 | 57.78 | -5.78 |
| Brentford | 55 | 60.80 | -5.80 |
| Leeds United | 49 | 56.49 | -7.49 |
| Chelsea | 58 | 67.26 | -9.26 |
| Wolverhampton | 27 | 36.42 | -9.42 |
| Crystal Palace | 41 | 58.27 | -17.27 |
What the gaps suggest — and what to check next
Palace’s 58.27 xG puts their attacking output in a different light from their goal total. The next step is to inspect the shots and the players who took them: was the shortfall spread across the squad, concentrated in a few matches, or driven by particular types of chances? The aggregate number gives us the question, not the answer.
Villa and Tottenham sit at the top of this table, while Chelsea and Wolverhampton sit near the bottom. That does not establish a permanent finishing skill or prove that all of the difference was luck. Finishing, goalkeeping, the mix of shots and the xG model’s own limitations can all contribute. Repeated seasons are more informative than one ranking.
It also matters how many chances a team creates. A positive gap can coexist with modest attacking volume; a negative gap can coexist with a strong attack. Compare goals and xG together before attaching a label such as “clinical” or “wasteful.”
How we calculated this
For each team, we subtract season xG from league goals scored. The table uses xG Lab’s licensed TheStatsAPI dataset for all 380 matches between 15 August 2025 and 24 May 2026, captured on 12 October 2026. Values are rounded to two decimal places. Other providers can produce different xG totals, so this ranking should be compared within the same dataset.
This is a descriptive, end-of-season analysis. It is not a forecast of finishing in 2026/27, and the gap should not be read as an estimate of “goals owed.”
Inspect Crystal Palace’s team data, compare Aston Villa, or open the full 2025/26 team table. For definitions, see our football analytics glossary.