Match analysisAI-assisted
Leeds United 1–0 Tottenham Hotspur: what changed at minute 79?
Leeds United's win probability moved from 9.9% to 88.2%. Compare the match sequence with 2.01–0.70 xG.
By xG Lab ·
The recorded evidence
On 07 November 2026, Leeds United and Tottenham Hotspur finished 1–0. The verified goal sequence was: Leeds United at minute 79 (1–0).
At kick-off the model assigned Leeds United 28.4%, the draw 31.2% and Tottenham Hotspur 40.5%. At minute 78, the home win probability was 9.9%; at minute 79 it was 88.2%. This was the largest consecutive home probability change before the settled endpoint, at 78.2 percentage points. Values are independently rounded. At the later checkpoint the draw was 11.0% and the away win probability was 0.8%.
Leeds United recorded 2.01 xG and Tottenham Hotspur recorded 0.70. Total xG sums the scoring probabilities of chances; it does not establish average shot quality or a deserved result. The replay model uses pre-match strengths, score, remaining time and recorded red cards, rather than updating from live xG. The final checkpoint is settled by the actual result.
What the minute 79 swing does and does not show
The recorded goal sequence is short: Leeds United at minute 79 (1–0). That matches the probability checkpoints. At minute 78 the draw stood at 77.4%, with Leeds United at 9.9% and Tottenham Hotspur at 12.7%. At minute 79 the draw fell to 11.0%, Leeds United rose to 88.2% and Tottenham Hotspur fell to 0.8%. The observation is that the largest consecutive move, 78.2 percentage points, sits at the same recorded minute as the only score change.
The model uses pre-match strengths, the current score, remaining time and recorded red cards. It does not read live xG. So the curve moved because the score changed late in the match, not because of the 2.01 xG to 0.70 xG totals. We cannot say from the recorded data how the goal was created. We also cannot say what either side was doing before it.
The kick-off figures give context. Tottenham Hotspur had the highest pre-match probability at 40.5%. Leeds United had 28.4% and the draw had 31.2%. By the final checkpoint at minute 90, the model shows Leeds United at 100.0%, the draw at 0.0% and Tottenham Hotspur at 0.0%. That endpoint is settled by the result. It is not a pre-whistle estimate.
What to inspect next
A possible interpretation is that Leeds United's larger xG total and the late goal fit together. That is only a possibility. Total xG is a sum of scoring probabilities. It does not show average shot quality or which side deserved the result. The final xG also cannot change the actual 1–0 scoreline.
In the linked replay, check when the chances making up 2.01 xG occurred relative to minute 79. Also check whether the Tottenham Hotspur total of 0.70 came from a few chances or many. Then open the methodology page and compare the sampled checkpoints around minute 78 with the table. This should show how much of the movement comes from the score and the remaining time, rather than from shot data. The recorded data only has sampled minutes, so any finer timing claim needs a separate source.
The data behind this analysis
| Minute | Leeds United win | Draw | Tottenham Hotspur win |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0′ | 28.4% | 31.2% | 40.5% |
| 78′ | 9.9% | 77.4% | 12.7% |
| 79′ | 88.2% | 11.0% | 0.8% |
| 90′ | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Method, sources and limitations
This article uses a fixed snapshot captured on 2026-11-09. The latest data used is dated 2026-11-07. The snapshot stays fixed as the underlying tools update.
xG values use xG Lab’s licensed TheStatsAPI feed; other providers may produce different values. Probabilities come from xG Lab’s model using pre-match strengths, score, remaining time and recorded red cards. The model does not update strengths from live xG. The replay follows recorded minute checkpoints, including available stoppage time, with a settled final endpoint. Figures are rounded.
Short samples are descriptive and are not adjusted for opposition strength. A goals-minus-xG gap does not by itself isolate finishing skill or forecast future results. Pre-match probabilities are uncertain snapshots and may change with later data.
Prepared by xG Lab with AI assistance, following the analysis methods and editorial standards our team designed. Every figure is checked against the data snapshot above before publication. Interpretations should be read with these limitations.