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Model favoured Deportivo Alavés · expected score 1–1 · actual 1–1.
The model rates Draw lower than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| 4.5 | 8% | 92% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Deportivo Alavés and Real Oviedo played out a 1–1 draw in a competitive encounter at the Estadio de Mendizorrotza. Federico Viñas gave Oviedo the lead in the 56th minute, capitalising on a low-xG opportunity. Alavés equalised through Lucas Boyé in the 69th minute, also from a relatively modest chance. Viñas's opening goal proved to be the decisive swing in the match, momentarily shifting momentum towards the visitors.
The underlying statistics painted a picture of Oviedo dominance that was ultimately not reflected in the final scoreline. The away side generated an xG of 2.09 compared to Alavés's 1.55, demonstrating superior chance creation throughout the match. Both teams registered 18 shots, but Oviedo's quality was evident in their xG advantage. Notably, Viñas wasted a gilt-edged opportunity with an xG of 0.58 that was saved in the 65th minute, whilst Boyé squandered a big chance of his own moments earlier, making it a game the away side dominated on xG but could not win.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).