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Model favoured Deportivo Alavés · expected score 2–1 · actual 0–1.
The model rates Deportivo Alavés higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 4.5 | 13% | 87% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Deportivo Alavés suffered a narrow defeat at home to Celta Vigo, losing 0–1 on Matchday 13. Iago Aspas broke the deadlock in the 55th minute with a well-taken finish, capitalising on what proved to be the decisive moment of the match. The goal marked a significant swing in the contest, shifting momentum decisively towards the visitors. Despite creating five shots to Celta's seven, Alavés could not find an equaliser.
The result was backed by the underlying statistics, with Celta Vigo's xG of 1.38 substantially exceeding Alavés's 0.42, reflecting the visitors' dominance in chance creation. Aspas's winning goal carried an xG value of 0.82, demonstrating its quality as a scoring opportunity. Celta had earlier squandered a big chance through Pablo Durán in the 51st minute, which was saved. The away victory represented a deserved outcome given the gulf in expected goals between the two sides.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).