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Model favoured Rayo Vallecano · expected score 1–1 · actual 1–0.
The model rates Rayo Vallecano lower than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 1.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| 4.5 | 5% | 95% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Rayo Vallecano defeated Deportivo Alavés 1-0 in a closely contested encounter at home. The decisive moment came in the 91st minute when Alemão broke the deadlock, capitalising on a low-xG opportunity of 0.25. The home side had earlier squandered a big chance through the same player in the fourth minute. Alavés mounted a late challenge, with Toni Martínez missing a significant opportunity worth 0.4 xG in the 76th minute, but could not find an equaliser.
The underlying metrics revealed a tight affair between the two sides. Rayo generated a marginal xG advantage of 1.23 to Alavés's 0.95, despite both teams recording similar shot counts of 15 and 12 respectively. The home side's victory was underpinned by clinical finishing when it mattered most, converting their lower-quality opportunity into the match-winning goal in stoppage time, which represented a significant swing in their favour at that stage.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).