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Model favoured Real Madrid · expected score 1–2 · actual 0–0.
The model rates Real Madrid lower than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 97% | 3% |
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 4.5 | 29% | 71% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid played out a goalless draw at home, with neither side able to convert their chances despite a combined 34 shots. The biggest opportunity fell to Álvaro García in the 67th minute, when the Rayo forward missed a big chance rated at 0.51 xG. Vinícius Júnior had Real Madrid's clearest opening in the 22nd minute, but his shot was saved, whilst Jorge de Frutos also squandered a promising moment for the hosts in the 50th minute.
The result proved even on the balance of play, with Rayo posting 1.18 xG from 13 shots whilst Real Madrid generated 0.99 xG despite their superior shot count of 21. The match remained level throughout, with a marginal swing towards the visitors emerging in the closing stages. The draw meant that despite Real Madrid's pre-match odds of 0.58 win probability, they could not break the deadlock against a determined Rayo side.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).