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Model favoured Real Sociedad · expected score 2–2 · actual 0–1.
The model rates Rayo Vallecano higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96% | 4% |
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 4.5 | 23% | 77% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Real Sociedad suffered a narrow defeat at home to Rayo Vallecano on matchday eight, losing 0–1 to a goal from Alfonso Espino in the 84th minute. The hosts dominated possession and created chances, recording ten shots compared to Rayo's seven, but failed to convert their opportunities. Espino's strike proved decisive in what was a closely contested encounter, with the away side's late goal representing a significant swing in momentum towards Vallecano.
The underlying metrics suggest a tightly balanced contest. Real Sociedad finished with an xG of 0.81 against Rayo's 0.78, indicating that despite creating marginally better chances, they were unable to capitalise. Espino's goal carried an xG value of 0.42, reflecting a clear opportunity. The match unfolded largely as the pre-match probability model suggested, with Vallecano defying a 0.33 win probability to secure all three points through clinical finishing in the closing stages.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).