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Model favoured Rayo Vallecano · expected score 1–1 · actual 0–0.
The model rates Draw lower than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 4.5 | 14% | 86% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Real Oviedo and Rayo Vallecano shared a goalless draw in a match where the visitors controlled proceedings without finding the net. The home side managed eight shots whilst Rayo registered eleven attempts, though neither team could break the deadlock. The clearest opportunity fell to Álvaro García in the sixty-second minute, but the away player's effort went begging at a critical juncture.
The underlying metrics underlined Rayo's superiority, as they accumulated 0.98 xG compared to Oviedo's 0.44, reflecting their dominance throughout the encounter. Despite this significant advantage in expected goals, Rayo's inability to convert chances meant they failed to capitalise on their pre-match win probability of 43 per cent. The biggest swing in win probability came deep into stoppage time in Rayo's favour, though it proved too little too late to alter the final scoreline.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).