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Model favoured Osasuna · expected score 1–2 · actual 0–0.
The model rates Draw lower than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 95% | 5% |
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 4.5 | 20% | 80% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Real Oviedo and Osasuna played out a goalless draw at El Molinón on Matchday 11. The hosts had an early opportunity through Ilyas Chaira in the second minute, but his effort was saved. Osasuna dominated possession with eleven shots to Oviedo's eight, though neither side managed to find the back of the net. The decisive moment came late in the contest, when momentum shifted marginally towards the visitors in the ninetieth minute.
The underlying statistics reflected an even contest between the two sides. Oviedo generated 0.66 xG whilst Osasuna accumulated 0.75 xG, suggesting the visitors created marginally better chances overall. Chaira's saved shot represented the game's clearest opportunity, carrying an xG value of 0.26. Despite Osasuna's slight edge in expected goals and shot volume, neither team could convert their chances, resulting in a draw that accurately reflected the balance of play.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).