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Model favoured Atlético Madrid · expected score 2–1 · actual 1–0.
The model rates Atlético Madrid lower than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| 4.5 | 12% | 88% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Atlético Madrid secured a deserved 1-0 victory over Osasuna at home on matchday nine. Thiago Almada broke the deadlock in the 69th minute, providing the decisive moment in a match where the hosts dominated possession and territory. Atlético squandered earlier opportunities, with Antoine Griezmann's effort saved in the seventh minute and José María Giménez missing a big chance in the 59th minute, before Almada finally found the breakthrough. Osasuna threatened late on when Ante Budimir had a big chance saved in the 89th minute, but it proved too little too late.
The underlying metrics confirmed Atlético's superiority, with the hosts generating an xG of 2.56 compared to Osasuna's 1.18. Atlético's attacking threat was evident from their 18 shots against their visitors' nine, with the xG advantage fully reflected in the result. The pivotal moment came with Almada's goal, which swung win probability 0.583 in Atlético's favour. The victory represents a deserved home win backed comprehensively by the expected goals data.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).