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Model favoured Deportivo Alavés · expected score 1–1 · actual 1–0.
The model rates Girona FC lower than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| 4.5 | 8% | 92% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Girona FC claimed a 1-0 victory against Deportivo Alavés in a result that defied the balance of play. Viktor Tsygankov opened the scoring in the sixteenth minute with a low-xG effort, and this proved decisive despite Alavés dominating thereafter. The away side registered fourteen shots to Girona's ten, but struggled to convert their opportunities when it mattered most.
The underlying metrics painted a picture of an against-the-run result. Alavés generated significantly higher expected goals at 1.86 compared to Girona's 0.84, yet failed to find the net. The visitors squandered three big chances, with Denis Suárez seeing his effort saved in the twelfth minute, whilst Diego Morcillo and Pablo Ibáñez missed high-quality opportunities later in the match. Girona's clinical finishing and defensive resilience secured all three points despite being second best in terms of chance creation.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).