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Model favoured Deportivo Alavés · expected score 1–1 · actual 0–0.
The model rates Valencia lower than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| 4.5 | 5% | 95% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Deportivo Alavés and Valencia played out a goalless draw at Mendizorrotza on Matchday 9. Despite dominating possession and territory, Alavés could not find the breakthrough, whilst Valencia offered little in attack. The visitors' best opportunity came early through Arnaut Danjuma in the second minute, but he squandered a clear chance. The match remained tightly contested throughout, with neither side able to capitalise on their opportunities.
The underlying statistics suggest Alavés merited more from the contest. The home side generated significantly more threat, recording 0.83 xG from 13 shots compared to Valencia's modest 0.45 xG from just five efforts. However, neither team could convert their chances into goals, resulting in an even game that ended level on the balance of chances. The biggest momentum swing came late in the ninety-minute affair, marginally favouring the away side.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).