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Model favoured Deportivo Alavés · expected score 1–1 · actual 1–0.
The model rates Deportivo Alavés higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| 4.5 | 10% | 90% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Deportivo Alavés secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Real Sociedad in a tightly contested encounter. Lucas Boyé broke the deadlock in the 49th minute with a well-taken finish, capitalising on what proved to be the decisive moment of the match. The goal represented a significant shift in momentum, with the home side's win probability improving substantially following Boyé's strike. Despite Real Sociedad's efforts to find an equaliser, they could not overcome the deficit.
The underlying metrics suggest Alavés deserved their victory, though only marginally. The hosts generated 1.42 xG from 14 shots, slightly outperforming their visitors' 1.17 xG from 10 attempts. Real Sociedad's best chance came late in the game when Jon Karrikaburu squandered a big chance in the 78th minute, rated at 0.44 xG. Ultimately, Alavés's clinical finishing in a relatively evenly matched contest proved decisive.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).