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Model favoured Real Oviedo · expected score 1–1 · actual 1–1.
The model rates Real Oviedo higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 95% | 5% |
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 4.5 | 18% | 82% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Real Oviedo and Real Betis played out a 1-1 draw in a match where the visitors dominated possession and chances but failed to convert their advantage. Ilyas Chaira gave Oviedo the lead in the sixty-fourth minute, but Giovani Lo Celso equalised for Betis in the eighty-third minute, a moment that swung win probability dramatically in the away side's favour. The biggest chances fell to Alberto Reina for Oviedo and Cucho Hernández for Betis, though neither capitalised on their opportunities.
The underlying numbers suggest Betis controlled the game significantly, recording 2.3 xG compared to Oviedo's 1.06 despite the sides finishing level. Betis also had more attempts overall, registering fifteen shots to Oviedo's thirteen. However, both goals came from low-xG situations—Chaira's opener and Lo Celso's equaliser each rated at just 0.06 xG—meaning the result did not reflect Betis's dominance in chance creation. Cucho Hernández had the most significant opportunities for the away side, hitting the post in the thirty-third minute and missing in the seventy-third.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).