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Model favoured Atlético Madrid · expected score 1–1 · actual 0–1.
The model rates Getafe higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| 4.5 | 8% | 92% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Atlético Madrid secured a 1-0 victory at Getafe on Matchday 13, with Domingos Duarte scoring the decisive goal in the 82nd minute. The away side dominated proceedings, registering 14 shots compared to Getafe's nine. Nicolás González spurned a significant opportunity early on when his effort was saved in the sixth minute, whilst Getafe's best chance fell to Mauro Arambarri in the 62nd minute, though his shot was blocked. The decisive moment came late in the contest when Duarte broke the deadlock to secure three points for the visitors.
Atlético Madrid's superiority was reflected in the underlying metrics, accumulating 1.38 xG to Getafe's 0.7, with the xG verdict indicating a deserved away victory. González's saved shot in the opening stages represented the match's highest-quality opportunity at 0.53 xG, whilst Duarte's 82nd-minute winner carried just 0.18 xG, demonstrating clinical finishing from the visitors. The late goal marked the biggest swing in win probability, a shift of 0.067 in Atlético's favour as they closed out a controlled performance.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).