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Model favoured Getafe · expected score 1–1 · actual 1–0.
The model rates Getafe higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| 4.5 | 6% | 94% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Vedat Muriqi's fourteenth-minute finish proved decisive as Mallorca claimed a 1-0 victory over Getafe in a closely contested encounter. The goal, struck from a chance worth 0.53 xG, represented the game's only breakthrough. Despite dominating possession in terms of shot volume, Getafe fired fourteen attempts compared to Mallorca's six, yet the hosts' clinical finishing secured all three points. The breakthrough shifted win probability dramatically in Mallorca's favour, swinging 0.346 in their direction from the moment of the goal.
The underlying metrics painted a picture of a tight affair where Mallorca's efficiency proved the difference. Both sides generated similar expected goals, with the hosts accumulating 1.21 xG against Getafe's 0.88 xG. Sergi Darder spurned a significant opportunity in the seventy-third minute, his shot from a big chance worth 0.31 xG being saved. Pre-match probabilities had suggested a genuinely open contest, with home, away and draw all separated by narrow margins, yet Mallorca's decisive moment proved sufficient to settle the match.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).