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Model favoured Athletic Club · expected score 2–2 · actual 1–0.
The model rates Athletic Club higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 95% | 5% |
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 4.5 | 20% | 80% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Athletic Club defeated Atlético Madrid 1-0 at home in a closely contested encounter on matchday fifteen. Álex Berenguer broke the deadlock in the eighty-fifth minute with a low-probability finish. The decisive moment came late in the match, shifting momentum sharply towards the home side. Earlier opportunities had gone begging, with Gorka Guruzeta missing a clear chance in the eleventh minute before Thiago Almada's effort was saved for Atlético moments later.
The underlying metrics suggest Athletic merited their narrow victory despite comparable xG figures. The home side generated 1.17 xG to Atlético's 0.71 whilst registering fourteen shots compared to their visitors' seven attempts. Berenguer's winning goal carried just 0.07 xG, making it a fortunate finish that rewarded Athletic's superior control of the game. The visitors had offered limited threat throughout, with Almada's saved opportunity representing their most presentable chance.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).