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Model favoured Levante UD · expected score 1–1 · actual 0–2.
The model rates Levante UD higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 4.5 | 13% | 87% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Athletic Club secured a deserved 2-0 away victory against Levante UD, with the contest effectively decided in its opening stages. Robert Navarro broke the deadlock in the third minute, an early goal that proved pivotal in shifting momentum decisively toward the visitors. Nico Williams doubled Athletic's advantage before half-time in the 44th minute, leaving Levante with a mountain to climb. Despite creating eleven attempts to Athletic's fourteen, Levante could not find a way back into the match.
The underlying metrics supported Athletic's victory comprehensively. The visitors generated 2.91 xG compared to Levante's 1.34, a significant differential that reflected their dominance throughout. Levante squandered a notable opportunity through Iván Romero in the 54th minute, whilst Athletic wasted a big chance via Gorka Guruzeta in the 71st minute. Williams also forced a save earlier in the contest, underlining Athletic's attacking threat. The early goal in the third minute proved the decisive swing in proceedings, fundamentally altering the complexion of the encounter.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).