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Model favoured Valencia · expected score 2–2 · actual 1–0.
The model rates Levante UD higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96% | 4% |
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 4.5 | 22% | 78% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Valencia secured a deserved 1-0 victory over Levante UD at home on Matchday 13. Hugo Duro settled the contest in the 79th minute, providing the decisive moment in what proved to be a significant swing in the match's trajectory. The home side dominated possession and territory, recording 14 shots compared to Levante's seven attempts, though Levante's José Luis Morales spurned a big chance late in the match, firing wide in the 89th minute.
The underlying statistics supported Valencia's victory. The hosts generated an xG of 1.38 to Levante's 0.74, reflecting their superior control throughout proceedings. Duro's winning goal carried an xG value of 0.4, whilst Morales's missed opportunity in the closing stages was worth 0.3. The result represented a deserved home win backed by the expected goals data, with Valencia's attacking threat consistently outweighing their visitors' threat on goal.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).