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Model favoured Fulham · expected score 1–1 · actual 0–0.
The model rates Fulham higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 4.5 | 15% | 85% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Nottingham Forest and Fulham played out a goalless draw at the City Ground on matchday thirty. Despite creating eleven shots to Fulham's five, Forest failed to convert their chances. The most significant opportunity fell to Fulham's Joshua King in the forty-fifth minute, but he spurned a gilt-edged chance rated at 0.38 xG. The biggest swing in match dynamics came in the ninetieth minute, moving marginally in Fulham's favour.
The underlying statistics revealed an evenly contested encounter that ended level on the balance of chances. Forest generated 0.7 xG whilst Fulham accumulated 0.65 xG, suggesting neither side created sufficiently clear-cut opportunities to claim victory. Forest's shot count of eleven demonstrated territorial dominance, yet their inability to find the net meant Fulham departed with a point despite having fewer attempts. The draw represented a reasonable result given the quality of chances either team manufactured.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).