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Model favoured Nottingham Forest · expected score 1–1 · actual 0–0.
The model rates Nottingham Forest lower than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| 4.5 | 9% | 91% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Nottingham Forest and Wolverhampton played out a goalless draw at the City Ground on Matchday 26. Despite dominating possession and territory, Forest failed to convert their superiority into goals. The hosts created 35 shots compared to Wolverhampton's seven, with Lorenzo Lucca squandering a clear opportunity in the 31st minute. Late in the match, both Morato and Igor Jesus saw efforts saved as Forest pressed for a winner that never materialised.
The underlying numbers underlined Forest's dominance, with the hosts generating an xG of 2.64 to Wolverhampton's 0.42, yet the visitors held firm to secure a point. Forest's barrage of attempts was ultimately insufficient against resolute defending. The biggest momentum swing came in the 90th minute, favouring Wolverhampton marginally. The result represents a frustrating evening for the home side, who created far more than enough to have won comfortably but were unable to find the breakthrough.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).