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Model favoured Arsenal · expected score 1–1 · actual 0–0.
The model rates Arsenal lower than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| 4.5 | 10% | 90% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Nottingham Forest held Arsenal to a goalless draw at the City Ground in a match dominated by the visitors. Arsenal created considerably more attacking opportunities, registering 15 shots to Forest's six, yet failed to find the breakthrough. The most significant moment came in the 70th minute when Gabriel Jesus was denied by the Forest goalkeeper after a chance rated at 0.53 xG. The biggest swing in win probability came deep into stoppage time, moving slightly in Arsenal's favour.
The underlying metrics painted a picture of Arsenal's dominance that the scoreline did not reflect. The visitors accumulated 2.13 xG compared to Forest's 0.32, underlining their superior attacking play throughout the 90 minutes. Despite their control of the match and volume of chances created, Arsenal's inability to convert their opportunities meant they left Nottinghamshire empty-handed, a frustrating outcome given the gulf in expected goal difference.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).