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Model favoured Crystal Palace · expected score 2–1 · actual 1–0.
The model rates Crystal Palace higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 4.5 | 14% | 86% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Crystal Palace secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Wolverhampton at home on Matchday 27, with Evann Guessand's goal arriving in the 90th minute proving decisive. The hosts attempted 14 shots to Wolves' 12, though both sides created clear-cut opportunities. Wolverhampton's Tolu Arokodare had a gilt-edged chance saved in the 43rd minute, whilst Palace's Ismaïla Sarr saw an effort strike the post in the 35th minute. The late goal marked a significant turning point, with Palace's win probability surging dramatically in the final moments.
The underlying metrics suggested an evenly contested affair, with Palace's xG of 1.69 marginally inferior to Wolves' 1.71, yet the hosts emerged victorious. Guessand's winning goal carried an xG value of just 0.24, indicating its fortunate nature, whilst Arokodare's saved chance represented the clearest opportunity, rated at 0.82 xG. Palace had been pre-match favourites at 0.66 win probability, and ultimately delivered the result despite the statistics suggesting either side might have claimed victory.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).