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Model favoured Crystal Palace · expected score 2–1 · actual 0–0.
The model rates Crystal Palace higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 95% | 5% |
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 4.5 | 20% | 80% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Crystal Palace and Leeds United played out a goalless draw at Selhurst Park on Matchday 30. Despite Palace registering twelve shots to Leeds' ten, the visitors dominated proceedings without finding the back of the net. The most significant moment came in the forty-fifth minute when Leeds' Dominic Calvert-Lewin spurned a gilt-edged opportunity with an xG value of 0.82. The biggest swing in match probability came late in the contest, moving marginally in Leeds' favour.
The underlying metrics reflected Leeds' superiority, with the away side accumulating an xG of 1.16 compared to Palace's 0.65, suggesting the visitors should have won the encounter. Despite their statistical dominance, Leeds failed to convert their chances into a winning scoreline, leaving them frustrated at the final whistle. Neither side managed to break the deadlock in what proved a closely contested but ultimately fruitless affair.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).