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Model favoured Manchester City · expected score 1–2 · actual 0–1.
The model rates Leeds United higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96% | 4% |
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 4.5 | 22% | 78% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Leeds United fell to a 1-0 defeat against Manchester City in a closely contested encounter at Elland Road. Antoine Semenyo's clinical finish in the 45th minute proved decisive, capitalizing on what would be the game's only goal. Leeds had squandered two significant opportunities earlier, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin missing a clear chance in the fourth minute and Brenden Aaronson failing to convert in the 21st minute. Both sides created 14 shots apiece, reflecting the competitive nature of the contest.
The underlying metrics suggest a tight match where Manchester City's efficiency made the difference. Leeds generated 1.46 xG compared to City's 1.82, with the visitors' superiority marginal despite the one-goal margin. Semenyo's goal carried an xG value of 0.67, representing a well-taken opportunity. The biggest momentum shift came at half-time with Semenyo's strike, swinging play towards Manchester City by 0.19 in expected terms. No red cards were issued during the encounter.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).