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Premier League 2023/24 · Pro
From 10,000 simulated seasons. Full table for every team is part of Pro.
| Team | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 44% | 97% | 0% |
| Manchester City | 38% | 96% | 0% |
| Liverpool | 15% | 90% | 0% |
| Newcastle United | 2% | 42% | 0% |
| Chelsea | 1% | 27% | 0% |
We simulate the Premier League season 10,000 times. Each team's attack and defence strength comes from its expected-goals record — the same rolling xG model that powers our win-probability replays — and every simulated match is drawn from those strengths, so a full season of results emerges run by run.
Counting how often each team wins the title, finishes top-4 or is relegated across all runs turns strength into probabilities. Projected points come with an 80% range (10th–90th percentile), showing how much a season of that quality can swing on luck alone. Comparing projected points with the actual total separates skill from variance: a team far above its projection over-delivered on its chances; far below, it underperformed them.
Key terms: expected goals (xG), Monte Carlo simulation, expected points (xPts). The full table is part of Pro; the free league table includes an xG re-ranking for every team.