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Model favoured Athletic Club · expected score 1–1 · actual 0–1.
The model rates Athletic Club lower than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| 4.5 | 9% | 91% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Athletic Club and Valencia played out a tight encounter at San Mamés, with the visitors claiming a narrow 1-0 victory on Matchday 35. Umar Sadiq broke the deadlock in the 72nd minute, converting a chance rated at 0.16 xG. The goal proved decisive despite Athletic dominating possession, registering 14 shots to Valencia's seven. Hugo Duro had earlier squandered a significant opportunity for the away side in the 27th minute when his effort struck the post, a chance valued at 0.82 xG.
The underlying metrics suggest Valencia's win was warranted despite the close scoreline. The away side generated 1.17 xG compared to Athletic's 1.02, reflecting their clinical finishing when it mattered most. Athletic's superior shot count failed to translate into meaningful scoring chances, whilst Valencia proved more efficient in their limited attempts. The 72nd-minute goal represented the match's biggest momentum swing, tilting the contest decisively in the visitors' favour in the final stages.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).