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Model favoured Athletic Club · expected score 1–1 · actual 1–0.
The model rates Athletic Club lower than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| 4.5 | 9% | 91% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Athletic Club claimed a narrow 1-0 victory over Osasuna in a match that defied the balance of play. Gorka Guruzeta broke the deadlock in the sixteenth minute, and despite Osasuna's sustained pressure thereafter, the hosts held firm. The away side created a significant opportunity in the fifty-seventh minute when Ante Budimir saw his shot saved, but Athletic Club's defence ultimately proved resolute. The victory proved a significant swing in momentum, with Athletic Club's win probability jumping substantially following Guruzeta's early goal.
The underlying metrics painted a picture of an against-the-run result. Osasuna generated considerably more expected goals at 1.23 compared to Athletic Club's 0.56, whilst both teams registered eight and seven shots respectively. Athletic Club's solitary goal came from a chance worth 0.25 xG, whilst Budimir's missed effort represented the most clear-cut opportunity of the evening at 0.82 xG. The visitors' dominance in chance creation went unrewarded, leaving them frustrated despite their superior attacking output.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).