We use privacy-friendly analytics to understand traffic. With your consent we also load Google Analytics. No analytics cookies are set until you accept. See our privacy policy.
Model favoured Valencia · expected score 1–2 · actual 1–0.
The model rates Valencia higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 4.5 | 13% | 87% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Elche secured a surprise 1-0 victory over Valencia at home on Matchday 31, with Lucas Cepeda netting the decisive goal in the 73rd minute. The result proved against the run of play, as Valencia dominated possession and territory, registering 22 shots to Elche's 8. Valencia squandered two significant opportunities, with Lucas Beltrán missing a big chance in the 16th minute and Umar Sadiq doing likewise in the 49th, before Cepeda's goal proved decisive.
The underlying metrics underlined Valencia's dominance. The away side accumulated an xG of 2.29 compared to Elche's modest 0.6, reflecting their superior chance creation throughout the match. Valencia had been pre-match favourites with a 0.49 win probability, yet Cepeda's 73rd-minute strike, worth 0.31 xG, swung the outcome decisively toward the hosts by 0.641 in win probability terms. Elche's clinical finishing proved the difference despite being significantly outshot and outchanced.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).