We use privacy-friendly analytics to understand traffic. With your consent we also load Google Analytics. No analytics cookies are set until you accept. See our privacy policy.
Model favoured Valencia · expected score 1–2 · actual 1–0.
The model rates Valencia higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 4.5 | 13% | 87% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Real Oviedo secured a 1-0 victory over Valencia on Matchday 28, with David Costas scoring the decisive goal in the 30th minute. The result represented a significant swing in momentum towards the home side, who managed the contest effectively despite Valencia registering more shots (13 to 11). Oviedo's defensive discipline proved crucial in maintaining their slender advantage throughout the encounter.
The underlying statistics painted a closely contested picture, with Oviedo's xG of 0.84 only marginally exceeding Valencia's 0.54, suggesting the hosts edged a tight affair rather than dominating proceedings. Costas's goal carried an xG value of 0.23, indicating it was not a high-probability opportunity. The result defied pre-match expectations, which had favoured Valencia at 0.45 probability, whilst Oviedo began the match as underdogs at 0.28. The visitors' higher shot count failed to translate into clear-cut chances or goals.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).