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Model favoured Atlético Madrid · expected score 1–1 · actual 0–1.
The model rates Real Oviedo higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 4.5 | 11% | 89% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Real Oviedo fell to a narrow defeat against Atlético Madrid, losing 0-1 in a closely contested encounter on matchday 26. Julián Alvarez broke the deadlock in the ninety-fourth minute, converting a chance rated at 0.35 xG to secure victory for the visitors. The decisive moment came late, with Oviedo having created a big chance moments earlier when Federico Viñas saw his effort saved in the ninetieth minute.
The underlying metrics reflected a tight match between evenly matched sides. Oviedo generated marginally higher expected goals with 1.11 xG compared to Atlético Madrid's 0.95, and also registered more attempts with sixteen shots to their opponents' twelve. Despite the superior underlying numbers and having created significant opportunities, the home side's failure to convert proved costly as Atlético Madrid's clinical finishing in injury time secured all three points.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).