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Model favoured Deportivo Alavés · expected score 1–2 · actual 2–0.
The model rates Deportivo Alavés higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 4.5 | 16% | 84% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Levante secured a 2-0 victory over Deportivo Alavés in a match decided late on. Carlos Espí scored twice, in the 88th and 97th minutes, to seal the win for the hosts. The decisive swing came with Espí's opening goal in the 88th minute, shifting the match decisively in Levante's favour. Despite Alavés creating opportunities earlier in the game, including a big chance for Carles Aleñá that was saved in the 39th minute, they could not capitalise on their chances.
The result proved a deserved home victory backed by the underlying numbers. Levante generated 2.48 xG from 22 shots, whilst Alavés managed 1.49 xG from 17 attempts. Levante's attacking threat was evident throughout, though they squandered a significant opportunity through Carlos Álvarez in the tenth minute. Alavés had also created a further big chance for Lucas Boyé in the 39th minute, which was saved, but ultimately lacked the clinical finishing required to trouble the scoreline.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).