We use privacy-friendly analytics to understand traffic. With your consent we also load Google Analytics. No analytics cookies are set until you accept. See our privacy policy.
Model favoured Deportivo Alavés · expected score 1–1 · actual 0–2.
The model rates Deportivo Alavés higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 1.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 97% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Getafe secured a 2-0 victory at Deportivo Alavés on Matchday 23, with Luis Vázquez opening the scoring in the 53rd minute before Mauro Arambarri added a second in the 72nd. The away side's breakthrough marked a significant turning point, shifting win probability by 0.229 in their favour. Alavés had created promising opportunities earlier in the match, with Lucas Boyé squandering a chance in the 28th minute and Toni Martínez seeing his effort saved two minutes later, but they were ultimately unable to capitalise.
The underlying metrics suggest a closely contested encounter despite the final scoreline. Alavés generated 2.03 xG from thirteen shots whilst Getafe accumulated 1.97 xG across seventeen attempts, indicating Getafe edged a tight game rather than dominating proceedings. Arambarri's second goal, which carried an xG value of 0.82, represented the visitors' most clinical finish, whilst Alavés' profligacy in front of goal proved costly despite enjoying comparable expected goals.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).