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Model favoured Villarreal · expected score 1–1 · actual 0–1.
The model rates Villarreal lower than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| 4.5 | 8% | 92% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Villarreal secured a deserved 1-0 victory away at Levante on matchday 16, with Georges Mikautadze's 57th-minute goal proving decisive. The away side dominated proceedings, registering 15 shots to Levante's 17, with the goal arriving from a low-quality chance of just 0.22 xG. Villarreal created the more dangerous opportunities throughout, highlighted by two big chances in the 81st minute that fell to Mikautadze and Alfonso Pedraza, both of which were saved.
The underlying metrics vindicated Villarreal's victory, as the away side generated 2.75 xG compared to Levante's modest 1.04, reflecting their control of the match. The 57th-minute goal represented the biggest swing in win probability, favouring Villarreal by 0.189. Whilst Levante attempted more shots overall, they lacked the quality and clear-cut opportunities their visitors manufactured throughout the encounter, making Villarreal's win a deserved one backed by the expected goals data.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).