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Model favoured Tottenham Hotspur · expected score 1–1 · actual 0–1.
The model rates Tottenham Hotspur lower than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 4.5 | 11% | 89% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Wolverhampton and Tottenham Hotspur played out a tight contest at Molineux on matchday 34, with the away side emerging victorious through João Palhinha's 82nd-minute finish. The goal, which carried an xG value of 0.58, proved decisive in a closely-fought encounter. Both teams recorded eleven shots apiece, though neither side created a glut of clear-cut opportunities. Palhinha's late strike represented a significant swing in momentum, moving probability 0.093 in Tottenham's favour at that decisive moment.
The underlying statistics suggest the result was fairly competitive despite Spurs' victory. Wolverhampton accumulated 0.63 xG whilst Tottenham registered 1.08 xG, indicating the away side's slight edge in chance creation was reflected in the final scoreline. Neither team registered a big chance during the match. The pre-match win probability favoured Tottenham at 0.39 compared to Wolverhampton's 0.32, suggesting the away side's narrow victory aligned broadly with expectations.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).