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Model favoured Sunderland · expected score 2–1 · actual 1–0.
The model rates Sunderland higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 95% | 5% |
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 4.5 | 18% | 82% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Sunderland claimed a deserved 1-0 victory over Tottenham Hotspur at the Stadium of Light on Matchday 32. Nordi Mukiele struck the decisive goal in the 61st minute, converting from a low-probability chance with an xG value of 0.04. The home side had dominated proceedings, registering 13 shots compared to Tottenham's 11, though both teams created notable opportunities earlier in the match. Brian Brobbey spurned a clear chance for Sunderland in the 19th minute, whilst Dominic Solanke's effort was saved for the visitors in the first half.
The underlying metrics vindicated Sunderland's victory. The hosts' xG of 1.8 substantially exceeded Tottenham's 0.89, reflecting their superior control and creation throughout the contest. Mukiele's winning goal, despite its modest xG value, proved the crucial moment, triggering a significant swing in win probability of 0.469 in Sunderland's favour at the moment of scoring. The result represented a deserved home win backed by the underlying data.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).