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Model favoured Manchester United · expected score 2–1 · actual 1–0.
The model rates Manchester United higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 97% | 3% |
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 4.5 | 25% | 75% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Manchester United defeated Newcastle United 1-0 at home on Matchday 18. Patrick Dorgu opened the scoring in the 24th minute, a moment that proved decisive despite Newcastle's sustained pressure throughout the match. The goal represented a significant swing in momentum, with United's win probability increasing substantially following Dorgu's finish. Newcastle created the more numerous opportunities, registering 16 shots to United's nine, but were unable to find the breakthrough.
The underlying metrics reveal a closely contested encounter. Both sides generated similar expected goals, with United accumulating 1.22 xG and Newcastle 1.20 xG, indicating the visitors' chances were roughly proportionate to the home side's despite their shot volume. United squandered a notable opportunity through Diogo Dalot in the 73rd minute, a big chance worth 0.52 xG. The result vindicated pre-match expectations, with United favoured at 0.56 win probability, and they ultimately edged a tight contest where neither team achieved clear dominance.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).