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Model favoured Newcastle United · expected score 1–2 · actual 1–0.
The model rates Newcastle United higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 4.5 | 13% | 87% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Sunderland claimed a 1-0 victory over Newcastle United at the Stadium of Light on Matchday 16, with Nick Woltemade scoring the decisive goal in the 46th minute. The contest proved closely contested throughout, with both sides managing six shots apiece. Sunderland's goal came at a crucial juncture, representing the biggest swing in match probability towards the home side, with a delta of 0.408 occurring at the moment of the strike. Newcastle offered resistance but could not find an equaliser in a match that saw no red cards.
The underlying metrics suggested the result was marginally fair to Sunderland, who accumulated 0.4 xG compared to Newcastle's 0.24. Despite the home side's dominance in expected goals, the margin remained relatively narrow, reflecting a tight encounter. Woltemade's finish carried an xG value of 0.1, indicating he converted a relatively straightforward opportunity. The prematch probabilities had favoured Newcastle at 0.49, with Sunderland given just a 0.25 chance of victory before kick-off.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).