Transfer report card

Bundesliga 2024/25— did the new arrivals deliver? We predict each signing's attacking output from their previous season (adjusted for league strength) and compare it to what they actually produced.

Signings tracked

Model correlation

0.84

predicted vs actual

Avg error

0.14

output per 90

Player	Move	Predicted	Actual	vs model
Ermedin Demirović FW	FC Augsburg → VfB Stuttgart	0.45	1.02	+0.58
Nick Woltemade FW	SV Werder Bremen → VfB Stuttgart	0.30	0.88	+0.58
Maximilian Beier FW	TSG Hoffenheim → Borussia Dortmund	0.47	0.70	+0.23
Tim Kleindienst FW	1. FC Heidenheim → Borussia M'gladbach	0.44	0.67	+0.23
Mathias Honsak FW	Darmstadt 98 → 1. FC Heidenheim	0.24	0.40	+0.16
Serhou Guirassy FW	VfB Stuttgart → Borussia Dortmund	0.86	1.00	+0.15
Michael Olise FW	Crystal Palace → FC Bayern MünchenPL→Bundesliga	0.78	0.92	+0.14
Rasmus Kristensen DF	Roma → Eintracht FrankfurtSerie A→Bundesliga	0.07	0.21	+0.14
Marius Wolf MF	Borussia Dortmund → FC Augsburg	0.10	0.22	+0.12
Aleix García MF	Girona FC → Bayer 04 LeverkusenLa Liga→Bundesliga	0.21	0.33	+0.12
Valentin Gendrey DF	Lecce → TSG HoffenheimSerie A→Bundesliga	0.10	0.21	+0.10
Waldemar Anton DF	VfB Stuttgart → Borussia Dortmund	0.09	0.19	+0.10
Moritz Jenz DF	VfL Wolfsburg → 1. FSV Mainz 05	0.04	0.14	+0.10
Jeff Chabot DF	1. FC Köln → VfB Stuttgart	0.06	0.15	+0.09
Cedric Zesiger DF	VfL Wolfsburg → FC Augsburg	0.07	0.14	+0.08
Chrislain Matsima DF	Clermont Foot → FC AugsburgLigue 1→Bundesliga	0.03	0.10	+0.07
Arthur Theate DF	Stade Rennais → Eintracht FrankfurtLigue 1→Bundesliga	0.08	0.14	+0.06
Kevin Stöger MF	VfL Bochum 1848 → Borussia M'gladbach	0.45	0.51	+0.06
Ridle Baku DF	VfL Wolfsburg → RB Leipzig	0.16	0.22	+0.05
Eren Dinkçi MF	1. FC Heidenheim → SC Freiburg	0.24	0.28	+0.03
Ibrahima Sissoko MF	RC Strasbourg → VfL Bochum 1848Ligue 1→Bundesliga	0.10	0.13	+0.03
Patrick Osterhage MF	VfL Bochum 1848 → SC Freiburg	0.11	0.13	+0.02
Keven Schlotterbeck DF	VfL Bochum 1848 → FC Augsburg	0.12	0.12	-0.00
Pascal Groß MF	Brighton & Hove Albion → Borussia DortmundPL→Bundesliga	0.55	0.39	-0.16
Frank Onyeka MF	Brentford → FC AugsburgPL→Bundesliga	0.32	0.12	-0.20

Attacking output = non-penalty xG + expected assists per 90. Prediction applies our persistence and league-strength factors to the player's prior season. Minimum 900 minutes in both seasons. Goalkeepers and purely defensive value are not covered.