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New York City FC
1–1
CF Montréal

1.17 xGexpected goals0.60 xG

Andrés Perea 41'

90' Daniel Ríos

31 Oct 2026 18:00 Citi Field Tim Ford

Decisive moment

AThriller

Daniel Ríos' 90' equaliser

Draw chance 1% → 100%

Pre-match model prediction

Missed

New York City FC58%Draw23%CF Montréal18%

Model favoured New York City FC · expected score 2–1 · actual 1–1.

Scoreline & goals

from expected goals · Poisson

Total goals — probability over / under each line

Line	Over	Under
0.5	94%	6%
1.5	77%	23%
2.5	53%	47%
3.5	31%	69%
4.5	15%	85%

Both teams to score

Yes 51%

No 49%

Most likely score

1–0

11%

Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.

Form coming in (last 5)

New York City FC

l l d d w

CF Montréal

l l d l l

Match analysis

New York City FC led but were pegged back to a 1–1 draw. The chances were New York City FC's, though — 1.2 xG to 0.6 — two points that got away. The model had leaned toward New York City FC (58%), so the draw went against the pre-match numbers.

1.17xG0.60

12Shots10

3On target2

0Big chances0

Match flow — cumulative xG swing

⚽⚽

New York City FC aboveNew York City FC dominated xG by 0.6CF Montréal below

Win probability replay — press play

New York City FC

1–1

90'

CF Montréal

⚽⚽

90'

Related matches

New York City FC

New York City FC 2–1 Atlanta United Orlando City SC 1–1 New York City FC New York City FC 1–1 Los Angeles FC

CF Montréal

Charlotte FC 4–0 CF Montréal CF Montréal 0–2 Nashville SC Seattle Sounders FC 1–1 CF Montréal

Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).