Olympique de Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germainprediction

Ligue 1 2026/27 · Matchday 5 · Sun, 20 Sept 2026

Model forecast

win / draw / loss probabilities from the rolling-strength model

Olympique de MarseilleParis Saint-Germain

Olympique de Marseille 26%Draw 25%Paris Saint-Germain 49%

Expected score

1–2

Over 2.5 goals

59%

Both teams score

60%

The rolling-strength model makes Paris Saint-Germain the favourites at 49% — Olympique de Marseille 26%, the draw 25% and Paris Saint-Germain 49%. The most likely scoreline is 1–2, with a 59% chance of more than 2.5 goals. These are the model's own probabilities, not bookmaker odds — analysis only.