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Model favoured Real Oviedo · expected score 1–1 · actual 0–1.
The model rates Deportivo Alavés lower than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| 4.5 | 8% | 92% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Real Oviedo were defeated 0-1 at home by Deportivo Alavés in a match decided by a single goal. Toni Martínez broke the deadlock in the 17th minute with a strike carrying 0.92 xG, establishing what would prove to be the decisive moment. The goal represented a significant swing in match conditions, moving momentum decisively toward the visitors. Despite registering eight shots to Alavés's seven, the hosts struggled to create clear-cut opportunities throughout the encounter.
The underlying statistics vindicated Alavés's victory, as they accumulated 1.4 xG compared to Oviedo's 0.43, indicating sustained dominance in chance creation. Nahuel Tenaglia squandered a notable opportunity in the 71st minute, a chance valued at 0.25 xG that might have extended the visitors' advantage. The result aligned with pre-match expectations, with both sides entering the fixture with identical win probabilities of 0.35.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).