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Model favoured Barcelona · expected score 1–2 · actual 1–0.
The model rates Barcelona lower than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 95% | 5% |
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 4.5 | 18% | 82% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Deportivo Alavés claimed a narrow 1-0 victory over Barcelona on matchday 36, with Ibrahim Diabaté's goal in the 46th minute proving decisive. The goal, arriving at the start of the second half, represented a significant swing in the match's complexion, shifting momentum sharply towards the home side. Alavés managed nine shots compared to Barcelona's eight, controlling proceedings for large stretches despite facing a formidable opponent.
The underlying statistics suggest the result was tightly contested, with the home side's xG of 0.66 marginally exceeding Barcelona's 0.59. Despite Barcelona entering as slight favourites in the pre-match odds at 0.39 win probability, Alavés' clinical finishing and resilience proved sufficient to secure all three points. Neither team created a clear-cut opportunity, with both sides cancelling each other out in a relatively even affair that the hosts just managed to edge.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).