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Model favoured Getafe · expected score 1–1 · actual 1–0.
The model rates Getafe higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| 4.5 | 9% | 91% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Levante secured a deserved 1-0 victory against Getafe on Matchday 31. Carlos Espí broke the deadlock in the 83rd minute to settle the contest. The home side dominated possession and territory throughout, registering 22 shots to Getafe's five. Levante spurned several clear opportunities earlier in the match, with Adrián de la Fuente and Iván Romero both having big chances saved, whilst Kareem Tunde's effort struck the post. The winning goal represented a significant swing in the match's complexion.
Levante's control was reflected in the underlying metrics, with an xG total of 2.95 compared to Getafe's meagre 0.3. The result was therefore a deserved home win backed by the expected goals data. Before kick-off, Getafe had been slight favourites with a 45 per cent win probability against Levante's 27 per cent, yet the visitors failed to impose themselves on the contest. Levante's persistence and superiority across the 90 minutes ultimately proved decisive.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).