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Model favoured Girona FC · expected score 2–1 · actual 0–1.
The model rates Girona FC higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| 4.5 | 15% | 85% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Girona FC fell to a narrow defeat at home against Mallorca on matchday 34, losing 0-1 after Samú Costa's strike in the 43rd minute. The away side's goal came at a crucial juncture, representing a significant swing in momentum. Despite Girona's dominance in possession, evidenced by 14 shots to Mallorca's eight, they could not find an equaliser. Claudio Echeverri spurned a clear opportunity in the 20th minute when his shot was saved, whilst Mallorca's Zito Luvumbo had a similarly promising chance late in the contest.
The underlying statistics revealed a closely contested affair, with Girona generating marginally higher expected goals at 1.48 compared to Mallorca's 1.21. However, the visitors' efficiency proved decisive, as they converted their chances more effectively than their hosts. The match unfolded largely as expected given the prematch probabilities, which favoured Girona with a 53 per cent win probability. Ultimately, Mallorca's clinical finishing proved the difference in a tight encounter that could easily have gone either way.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).