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Model favoured Girona FC · expected score 2–2 · actual 1–0.
The model rates Girona FC higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96% | 4% |
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 4.5 | 22% | 78% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Girona FC secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Villarreal on Matchday 30, with Pau Navarro's goal in the 46th minute proving decisive. The encounter remained tightly contested throughout, with Girona registering eleven shots compared to Villarreal's nine. A significant swing in momentum arrived just before half-time, moving decisively in favour of the hosts and ultimately influencing the match outcome.
The underlying statistics revealed a closely matched contest, with Girona accumulating 0.57 xG against Villarreal's 0.6, suggesting the away side created marginally better chances despite finishing empty-handed. Navarro's goal represented a low-xG opportunity at 0.1, meaning Girona's victory came somewhat against the run of play in terms of expected performance. The result vindicated the home side's greater shot volume and resilience in what the data characterises as a tight game the hosts edged despite comparable underlying metrics.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).