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Model favoured Real Betis · expected score 2–1 · actual 0–0.
The model rates Real Betis higher than the consensus here. Observation only — the market consensus is typically sharper.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 4.5 | 16% | 84% |
Probabilities derived from the model's expected goals. For analysis only.
Starting XI & formation from the official line-up. Positions are by line (GK/DEF/MID/FWD).
Real Betis dominated possession and territory against Espanyol on Matchday 30 but were unable to convert their dominance into goals, finishing goalless. The home side created significantly more opportunities, registering 19 shots to Espanyol's eight. Aitor Ruibal came closest to breaking the deadlock in the 29th minute, first seeing a shot saved before missing a subsequent chance. The biggest swing in match probability came in the final minute, moving marginally towards the visitors.
The underlying data underscored Betis's control, with the hosts accumulating 1.8 xG compared to Espanyol's 0.19. Despite this considerable advantage, Betis's pre-match win probability of 65 per cent ultimately went unrewarded. Ruibal was the standout performer in terms of chance creation, generating the only big chances of the match with efforts totalling 0.96 xG combined. The result represented a frustrating evening for the home side, who had dominated proceedings but left empty-handed.
AI-assisted, generated only from this match's xG, shots and win-probability model.
Win probability from a strength-based Poisson model (team attack/defence ratings → expected goals, projected over the time remaining).